Three Important Kentucky Derby Trends To Consider

There aren’t many sporting events on the calendar that can capture the imagination of every fan. However, the Kentucky Derby does just that, as it is a day when experts and novices both look to find the winner of the race. It is one of the biggest betting days in the U.S., with players already regularly checking the Kentucky Derby 2022 betting odds.

But, unlike other races, there are some very important trends that must be considered before making your wager as they could have a huge bearing on the horse that comes out on top.

Post Position Importance

While the form of the horses is undeniably important, one of the important trends comes with the stall that is handed to the entries. Stall one has historically been the most successful with 12 winners since 1900, but no winner has started in this position since 1964. In fact, none of the previous 16 winners have started in stalls one, two, or three. In the past ten years, the higher draws have been more successful, with five winners being drawn in 15 or higher.

Meanwhile, stall 15 has recorded two winners, while the 19th stall has recorded the same number of winners. Interestingly, the widest draw in two of the previous three editions has produced the winner, with Authentic starting 15 from 15 and Country House starting 19 from 19. Meanwhile, stall seven has been a lucky number of two of the previous four editions, with both Mandaloun and Justify starting in that position.

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Last Run Before Kentucky Derby

The prep races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby are integral reading before making a bet on the featured race at Churchill Downs. However, extra interest should be put into the run last time out, as there are a number of trends that could point towards the winner. For example, 15 of the previous 16 winners were no bigger than 8/1 in their latest start before the Kentucky Derby, while the distance covered by the same number of winners was also greater than a mile.

It has also been a successful trend that the winners of the Derby have previously started in fields that are between six and twelve deep. There are some more important trends from the last start too, and those include avoiding horses that made their previous appearance at Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, or Keeneland. That could be particularly alarming to those who support White Abarrio, who won the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds in his final prep race before the Kentucky Derby.

Essential Trends To Follow

Over the course of the previous 16 Kentucky Derbys, there have been some trends that have been followed by all. That means that these should be the ones that all bettors follow before making their wager on the race this year.

 One of the most important is the prior-mentioned avoidance of stalls one to three, which has failed to produce a winner in the previous 16 editions. Furthermore, all previous 16 winners have also carried between 118-122lbs on debut and ran on FS or FM.

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Importantly, the number of runs that the horses have made should be examined. All previous 16 winners of the Kentucky Derby have made between two and four starts over the past 180 days. That means that the freshest horses always have an excellent chance in the Churchill Downs showpiece. 

Furthermore, all previous winners over the past 16 years have been Bay, Brown or Chestnut, which means avoiding any Greys in the race. That is once again damaging to the chances of White Abarrio, who is likely to be among the favorites despite not following a number of the key trends from the previous winners.

Other important factors that should be taken into account include horses that have finished in the top three on their latest start, and horses that made their debuts on the dirt and not the turf.


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