Guide to Evaluating the Values in Sports Betting
Sports betting is complicated if you do not know how it works. But there is always a first in everything. This is why for expert punters, evaluating the value of the odds can be their best course of action rather than just picking the favorite or the underdog.
Called “Value Betting,” this method applies math when you pick the odds. This is not a matter of which team or player you think is better. This is about winning and getting more money.
Unlike in conventional betting, where you choose which among the odds are lower (because they are the favorites), value betting needs more research, requires more analysis from the bettor. A punter can discard his favorite team and pick the opponent through mathematical analysis—as long as it gives him the win.
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How to Find the Value
Now in value betting, it requires you to think. To determine the value, you must pick between the odds who has a better chance of winning the game.
To find the value, multiply the odds by the percentage and divide it by 100. It is a good value bet if it is greater than 1.
For instance, your team is an underdog with above 2.0 odds. Computing the value of their odds means you can find whether it is an excellent choice to pick them.
The computation goes like this:
2 x 0.5
_______ = >1
= 1 ÷ 100 = >1
= 0.01 = >1
Based on the computation, the object’s value is less than 1, meaning it is not a good value bet. Nevertheless, sports tend to be sometimes unpredictable, so despite the value being lower than 1, it can still be a good bet.
You must also put into consideration what their past performances were like to help you make the right choice.
Valuable Tips on Value Betting
- Heavy favorites usually have less value because teams like Manchester United, Barcelona, Golden State Warriors, Phoenix Suns, etc., can disrupt the bookies’ business. If they give better odds to these teams, they will go bankrupt.
- So the real value can be found within the underdogs. Because punters rarely bet on them since their favorite team will most likely defeat them. Bookmakers like OKBET put a higher value on the losing team.
- Rushing things is not advised when value betting. Patience is needed. If you have a strategy, stick to it. Even if you lose some games, your total winnings will be more significant than your losses.
- The best time to value bet is at the season’s beginning and end. Results become unpredictable during those times, which can be your advantage through value betting.
Determine How Much You Should Bet
After finding a good value bet, it is time for you to determine how much you should wager. According to John L. Kelly, a famous researcher in gambling strategy, there is a certain optimal stake for every bet. The catch is that you have to determine the correct probability of the result.
To determine the amount, check the following criteria and formula to help you place your stake in a particular system.
A = Advantage – this is the percentage of your fund that will be placed on the match
P = Probability – this is for the result or the outcome of the game, which will be converted into decimals. This will be subjective based on your opinion.
The formula is:
A = P – (1-P)
Odds – 1
For example, an object has an odds of 2.00. You determine that the probability of the match result will be 55%.
Following the formula, it will be:
A = 0.55 – (1-0.55)
2.00 – 1
A = 0.55 – (0.45)
A = 0.1
A = 0.1
This means you have a 10% advantage and should bet 10% of your funds.
It is also important to note that getting too optimistic or pessimistic can cause you to lose money. Your probability should be accurate, for Kelly’s formula is designed to find out the optimal wager.
Be a defeatist when in doubt because the probabilities are subjective and only based on your opinion. It will also win you some money, though not as much as guessing the right probability.
Once you master the art of value betting, your chances of winning at every stake game will increase. It is also vital for you to learn how to understand and analyze the teams that are competing for you to determine the correct probability.